1. There’s now a structural shift from manufacturing-driven to a digital data-driven economy.
Plateau in worldwide trade in goods and capital coincided with a surge in data flows. Flows of finance, goods and services have fallen from a peak of 53 per cent of global output in 2007 to 39 per cent in 2014, but the flow of digital information around the world more than doubled between 2013 and 2015 alone - to an estimated 290 terabytes per second, growing a third in 2016.
2. Most exporters will expect a structural change in the way business is done as countries like China focus on domestic consumption.
The slow down in global trade is expected to be structural instead of cyclical. Beijing will increasingly be producing at home many of the once imported intermediate products for assembly.
3. Europe-Europe, North America-Europe, North America-Asia, Asia-Asia and North America-Latin America will dictate the digital business market in the near-term, with Europe to Europe data flows illustrating the most surge in connectivity and data flows.
Every business will just need to create digital products to rise above the slow down in manufacturing-driven trade.
4. Africa, Latin America and India are expected to contribute to another burst of manufacturing-driven globalisation.
China is developing its New Silk Road through Southeast Asia, central Asia and the Middle East, so Africa, Latin America and India will now support global trade as China shifts gears from manufacturing to consumption.
5. Connectedness will determine the winners in world trade.
Generally, the most connected countries will also enjoy the highest GDP. Singapore has been a league on its own, enjoying the highest GDP per capita and highest connectivity. Netherlands, USA, Germany and Ireland are placing next to Singapore in connectivity.
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